Impacts of a Standing Disaster Payment Program on U.S. Crop Insurance

This research investigates the potential effects of the standing disaster assistance program proposed in the Senate version of the 2008 Farm Bill. Results suggest no significant impact on producer crop insurance purchase decisions. Payments under the program should be expected to differ considerably across geographic regions and levels of diversification, with the program providing the greatest benefit to undiversified producers in more risky production regions (e.g., the Southern Plains).

Impacts of the SURE Standing Disaster Assistance Program on Producer Risk Management and Crop Insurance Programs

This research investigates the potential effects of the row crop provisions of the standing disaster assistance program (SURE) in the 2008 Farm Bill. Results suggest little impact on producer crop insurance purchase decisions, though the program does seem to provide an incentive for mid-level coverage. Payments under the program should be expected to differ considerably across geographic regions and levels of diversification, with the program providing the greatest benefit to undiversified producers in more risky production regions.crop insurance, disaster assistance, Farm Bill, SURE, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty, Q12, Q18,

Electrodeposition in microgravity: Ground-based experiments

Electrodeposition was studied at one-hundreth g and compared with bench studies at 1 g. The low gravity was achieved during KC-135 aircraft parobolic flights. Flow in a simple cobalt cell (1 M CoSO4) operating under typical commercial conditions (10 to 20 mA/sq cm and 1 V) was monitored with a Schlieren optical system. Natural convection was absent at one-hundreth g. Quantitative comparisons on a cobalt cell with shielded electrodes using interferometry were carried out. Fringe shift differences indicate greater semi-infinite linear diffusion at 1 g than at one-hundreth g for cobalt. Since a shielded electrode operates under diffusion controlled conditions, no differences between 1 g and one-hundreth g would be expected. Similar comparisons on a shielded electrode copper cell were inconclusive. Bench codeposition experiments using polystyrene neutral buoyancy particles coupled with a shielded electrode cobalt cell were begun. Tracking of 12 micron particles showed no measurable difference between thermal/Brownian motion when the cell was operational or nonoperational. Initial experiments on codeposition quality showed a strong dependence upon cathode surface preparation in a shielded electrode configuration

Analyzing Farmer Participation Intentions and Enrollment Rates for the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program

The 2008 Farm Bill created the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program as a new commodity support program. Using a multinomial logit model to analyze a mail survey administered before the ACRE sign-up deadline, we identify factors driving farmer intentions regarding ACRE participation. Using a two-limit Tobit model to analyze actual county-level ACRE enrollment rates, we assess the effect of similar factors on actual farmer decisions. Results suggest that primary crops, risk perceptions, risk aversion, and program complexity were important factors. Farmer beliefs and attitudes also played key roles and were evolving during the months before the ACRE deadline.

A response to “Likelihood ratio as weight of evidence: a closer look” by Lund and Iyer

Recently, Lund and Iyer (L&I) raised an argument regarding the use of likelihood ratios in court. In our view, their argument is based on a lack of understanding of the paradigm. L&I argue that the decision maker should not accept the expert’s likelihood ratio without further consideration. This is agreed by all parties. In normal practice, there is often considerable and proper exploration in court of the basis for any probabilistic statement. We conclude that L&I argue against a practice that does not exist and which no one advocates. Further we conclude that the most informative summary of evidential weight is the likelihood ratio. We state that this is the summary that should be presented to a court in every scientific assessment of evidential weight with supporting information about how it was constructed and on what it was based

The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study: IV. Estimating Historical Exposures to Diesel Exhaust in Underground Non-metal Mining Facilities

We developed quantitative estimates of historical exposures to respirable elemental carbon (REC) for an epidemiologic study of mortality, including lung cancer, among diesel-exposed miners at eight non-metal mining facilities [the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS)]. Because there were no historical measurements of diesel exhaust (DE), historical REC (a component of DE) levels were estimated based on REC data from monitoring surveys conducted in 1998–2001 as part of the DEMS investigation. These values were adjusted for underground workers by carbon monoxide (CO) concentration trends in the mines derived from models of historical CO (another DE component) measurements and DE determinants such as engine horsepower (HP; 1 HP = 0.746 kW) and mine ventilation. CO was chosen to estimate historical changes because it was the most frequently measured DE component in our study facilities and it was found to correlate with REC exposure. Databases were constructed by facility and year with air sampling data and with information on the total rate of airflow exhausted from the underground operations in cubic feet per minute (CFM) (1 CFM = 0.0283 m3 min−1), HP of the diesel equipment in use (ADJ HP), and other possible determinants. The ADJ HP purchased after 1990 (ADJ HP1990+) was also included to account for lower emissions from newer, cleaner engines. Facility-specific CO levels, relative to those in the DEMS survey year for each year back to the start of dieselization (1947–1967 depending on facility), were predicted based on models of observed CO concentrations and log-transformed (Ln) ADJ HP/CFM and Ln(ADJ HP1990+). The resulting temporal trends in relative CO levels were then multiplied by facility/department/job-specific REC estimates derived from the DEMS surveys personal measurements to obtain historical facility/department/job/year-specific REC exposure estimates. The facility-specific temporal trends of CO levels (and thus the REC estimates) generated from these models indicated that CO concentrations had been generally greater in the past than during the 1998–2001 DEMS surveys, with the highest levels ranging from 100 to 685% greater (median: 300%). These levels generally occurred between 1970 and the early 1980s. A comparison of the CO facility-specific model predictions with CO air concentration measurements from a 1976–1977 survey external to the modeling showed that our model predictions were slightly lower than those observed (median relative difference of 29%; range across facilities: 49 to –25%). In summary, we successfully modeled past CO concentration levels using selected determinants of DE exposure to derive retrospective estimates of REC exposure. The results suggested large variations in REC exposure levels both between and within the underground operations of the facilities and over time. These REC exposure estimates were in a plausible range and were used in the investigation of exposure–response relationships in epidemiologic analyses

Moduli of Abelian varieties, Vinberg theta-groups, and free resolutions

We present a systematic approach to studying the geometric aspects of Vinberg theta-representations. The main idea is to use the Borel-Weil construction for representations of reductive groups as sections of homogeneous bundles on homogeneous spaces, and then to study degeneracy loci of these vector bundles. Our main technical tool is to use free resolutions as an "enhanced" version of degeneracy loci formulas. We illustrate our approach on several examples and show how they are connected to moduli spaces of Abelian varieties. To make the article accessible to both algebraists and geometers, we also include background material on free resolutions and representation theory.Comment: 41 pages, uses tabmac.sty, Dedicated to David Eisenbud on the occasion of his 65th birthday; v2: fixed some typos and added reference

More than sense of place? Exploring the emotional dimension of rural tourism experiences

It is widely suggested that participation in rural tourism is underpinned by a sense of rural place or “rurality”. However, although nature and the countryside have long been recognised as a source of spiritual or emotional fulfilment, few have explored the extent to which tourism, itself often claimed to be a sacred experience, offers an emotional/spiritual dimension in the rural context. This paper addresses that literature gap. Using in-depth interviews with rural tourists in the English Lake District, it explores the extent to which, within respondents’ individual understanding of spirituality, a relationship exists between sense of place and deeper, emotional experiences and, especially, whether participation in rural tourism may induce spiritual or emotional responses. The research revealed that all respondents felt a strong attachment to the Lake District; similarly, and irrespective of their openness to spirituality, engaging in rural tourism activities resulted in highly emotive experiences for all respondents, the description/interpretation of such experiences being determined by individual “beliefs”. However, sense of place was not a prerequisite to emotional or spiritual experiences. Being in and engaging with the landscape � effectively becoming part of it � especially through physical activity is fundamental to emotional responses

Scaling solutions in general non-minimal coupling theories

A class of generalized non-minimal coupling theories is investigated, in search of scaling attractors able to provide an accelerated expansion at the present time. Solutions are found in the strong coupling regime and when the coupling function and the potential verify a simple relation. In such cases, which include power law and exponential functions, the dynamics is independent of the exact form of the coupling and the potential. The constraint from the time variability of $G$, however, limits the fraction of energy in the scalar field to less than 4% of the total energy density, and excludes accelerated solutions at the present.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Observationally Determining the Properties of Dark Matter

Determining the properties of the dark components of the universe remains one of the outstanding challenges in cosmology. We explore how upcoming CMB anisotropy measurements, galaxy power spectrum data, and supernova (SN) distance measurements can observationally constrain their gravitational properties with minimal assumptions on the theoretical side. SN observations currently suggest the existence of dark matter with an exotic equation of state p/rho < -1/3 that accelerates the expansion of the universe. When combined with CMB anisotropy measurements, SN or galaxy survey data can in principle determine the equation of state and density of this component separately, regardless of their value, as long as the universe is spatially flat. Combining these pairs creates a sharp consistency check. If p/rho > -1/2, then the clustering behavior (sound speed) of the dark component can be determined so as to test the scalar-field ``quintessence'' hypothesis. If the exotic matter turns out instead to be simply a cosmological constant (p/rho = -1), the combination of CMB and galaxy survey data should provide a significant detection of the remaining dark matter, the neutrino background radiation (NBR). The gross effect of its density or temperature on the expansion rate is ill-constrained as it is can be mimicked by a change in the matter density. However, anisotropies of the NBR break this degeneracy and should be detectable by upcoming experiments.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, RevTeX, submitted to PR